Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 10.921307 12.237309 13.717642 15.520228 17.675147 20.193398 23.396063
2025-03-23 9.152442 10.809474 12.822507 15.494850 19.023525 23.636556 30.326500
2025-03-30 7.886284 9.616213 11.820244 14.913419 19.280604 25.462490 35.363332
2025-04-06 6.934641 8.651125 10.914782 14.225916 19.147682 26.571444 39.494443
2025-04-13 6.245152 7.936179 10.230007 13.703195 19.098239 27.705446 43.885555
2025-04-20 6.239708 8.133666 10.805680 15.055793 22.098350 34.336283 60.366186
2025-04-27 5.984553 7.945577 10.792620 15.490840 23.672831 38.898248 74.874621
2025-05-04 5.535111 7.433499 10.239715 14.980755 23.509875 40.129531 82.426753
2025-05-11 5.343607 7.284229 10.221527 15.341984 24.969422 44.977890 101.762982
2025-05-18 5.055262 6.964616 9.903890 15.145664 25.328683 47.557773 116.416267
2025-05-25 4.803142 6.682012 9.619902 14.971763 25.696630 50.256732 133.445968
2025-06-01 4.599646 6.460873 9.416777 14.917905 26.297846 53.700878 156.126982
2025-06-08 4.326445 6.123108 9.011561 14.479299 26.083680 55.210471 173.776013
2025-06-15 4.147309 5.925881 8.830067 14.449046 26.780048 59.497595 209.739251
2025-06-22 3.902774 5.607510 8.416526 13.921822 26.247257 60.079359 227.979927
2025-06-29 3.662988 5.284557 7.974526 13.297237 25.393957 59.468406 239.268509
2025-07-06 3.465071 5.021277 7.621748 12.821583 24.836228 59.673501 257.034597
2025-07-13 3.535678 5.208057 8.079326 14.051022 28.752340 76.579313 446.637847
2025-07-20 3.480187 5.176729 8.137419 14.445527 30.607989 87.350156 644.353019
2025-07-27 3.316068 4.949954 7.818119 13.982932 30.012563 87.935429 715.275049
2025-08-03 3.262778 4.912934 7.852311 14.310593 31.743161 99.657964 1075.282348
2025-08-10 3.151315 4.768236 7.672159 14.132554 31.950294 104.536714 1364.311641
2025-08-17 3.049164 4.635492 7.507321 13.974772 32.196254 109.864638 1775.985177